LIVE — US-Iran ceasefire day 1 — Islamabad talks begin Apr 10

Middle East Crisis — April 8, 2026

Iran's 10-Point Plan
to End the War

40 days of airstrikes. 5,000 lives lost. Oil at $126. Now a fragile ceasefire — and ten demands that could either end the conflict or restart it.

40
Days of US-Israeli strikes on Iran
5,000+
Killed across the region
$126
Peak Brent crude per barrel
3.2M
People displaced
Ceasefire active — 14 days to negotiate

Two Years of Escalation

The current war didn't begin on February 28. It's the culmination of a two-year cycle of assassinations, missile strikes, and miscalculations.

APR
APRIL 2024
Iran's first direct strike on Israel
In retaliation for an Israeli strike on its Damascus consulate, Iran launched 330+ drones and ballistic missiles at Israel — the first direct attack in the countries' history. Israel and allies intercepted most projectiles with minimal damage.
330+ drones & missiles launched
OCT
OCTOBER 2024
Assassinations & the S-300 collapse
Following the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. Israeli counter-strikes destroyed nearly all of Iran's Russian-supplied S-300 air defense systems — eliminating the shield that had protected its nuclear sites.
S-300 air defenses neutralized
JUN
JUNE 13–24, 2025
The Twelve-Day War
Israel launched a surprise attack on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, assassinating military leaders, nuclear scientists, and politicians. Iran retaliated with 550+ ballistic missiles and 1,000+ drones. On June 22, the United States joined — bombing three Iranian nuclear sites directly. A US-brokered ceasefire halted the conflict on June 24.
1,550+ Iranian projectiles fired
DEC
DECEMBER 2025 – JANUARY 2026
Currency collapse & mass protests
The Iranian rial halved in value between July 2024 and March 2025, and hit a record low in December 2025 amid inflation above 30% annually. Beginning December 28, protests erupted across all 31 provinces. On January 8, security forces cracked down, with Iran's Ministry of Health reporting approximately 30,000 killed.
Rial at all-time low · ~30,000 killed in crackdown
FEB
FEBRUARY 28, 2026
US & Israel launch the major offensive
The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and government sites, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other senior officials. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases across the region, and US-allied countries. Day 1 of the current conflict.
Khamenei killed · Day 1 of 40
MAR
MARCH 4, 2026
Strait of Hormuz closes
Iran's IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and 25% of global LNG. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all LNG exports. Brent crude surged past $100 for the first time in four years, ultimately peaking at $126/barrel. The IEA called it "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."
Brent crude peaks at $126/bbl · 20% of global oil blocked
MAR
MARCH 31, 2026
Economic shockwaves go global
US gas prices hit $4/gallon — a 30% surge. Food inflation in Iran reached 105%, with bread +140% and cooking oils +219%. 70% of Gulf food imports were disrupted. 30% of global fertilizer trade — which also transits Hormuz — was blocked, triggering warnings of agricultural shortfalls in Africa and South Asia.
$4/gal gas · 105% food inflation in Iran
APR
APRIL 7–8, 2026 · TODAY
Ceasefire & Iran's 10-point proposal
After 40 days, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, with Iran confirming Hormuz would reopen to shipping during the pause. Trump described Iran's 10-point peace proposal as a "workable basis" for talks, though said it was "not good enough" as-is. Islamabad negotiations begin April 10.
14-day ceasefire · Hormuz reopens · Talks Apr 10

The 10-Point Plan, Explained

Iran's government submitted a formal 10-point framework as the basis for peace negotiations. Trump called it "workable" but "not good enough." Click each point to see where the two sides stand.

01 Immediate ceasefire & halt to all attacks on Iran ✓ In principle agreed

Iran demands an immediate, permanent end to US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory, military sites, and civilian infrastructure. The two-week ceasefire that began April 7 represents partial agreement — though Lebanon's inclusion remains disputed between the US, Israel, and Pakistan.

Iran's position
Permanent, unconditional halt to all military action against Iran and its allies. No temporary pauses.
US position
Two-week ceasefire agreed. Permanence contingent on Iran conceding on nuclear enrichment and other points.
02 Reopening the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian coordination ✓ In principle agreed

Iran has confirmed it will allow shipping to resume through Hormuz during the ceasefire period. However, Iran's proposal insists on maintaining a coordination role — effectively asserting ongoing authority over transit. Iran paused Hormuz traffic briefly on April 8 in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, demonstrating the leverage it intends to retain.

Iran's position
Hormuz reopens, but Iran retains authority to regulate transit — including potential future closures. Demands compensation for economic losses from the closure.
US position
Accepts reopening. Strongly opposed to any ongoing Iranian "coordination" role that could be used as a coercive lever.
03 End to war against the Axis of Resistance ⚠ Disputed

Iran demands that the ceasefire extend to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and other Iranian-backed proxy forces across the region. This is a central point of dispute — the US and Israel have explicitly stated Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire, while Pakistan, the mediator, says it is.

Iran's position
A ceasefire that doesn't protect the Axis of Resistance is meaningless. Hezbollah and the Houthis must be included.
US position
Lebanon explicitly excluded. Israel's right to continue operations against Hezbollah is non-negotiable.
04 Full US military withdrawal from regional bases ✕ US rejects

Iran's proposal calls for the complete withdrawal of US combat forces from military bases across the Middle East — including facilities in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. This is a maximalist demand that the US has rejected outright.

Iran's position
US military presence in the region is the root cause of instability. Full withdrawal is a prerequisite for lasting peace.
US position
Non-starter. Regional basing commitments are security guarantees to US allies and not subject to negotiation with Iran.
05 Lifting of all international sanctions & asset unfreezing ⚠ Disputed

Iran is demanding the lifting of all US and multilateral sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian assets — estimated at over $100 billion held internationally. The second Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign had pushed the rial to record lows. Secretary Bessent had called the currency collapse in December 2025 the "grand culmination" of that strategy.

Iran's position
Sanctions relief must be comprehensive and immediate, not phased. Frozen assets must be released as part of any deal.
US position
Sanctions relief is possible but must be conditioned on verifiable compliance on nuclear and other issues. Phased approach only.
06 Financial compensation to Iran for strike damages ⚠ Disputed

Iran is demanding financial compensation for the damage caused by US and Israeli airstrikes — including damage to nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and civilian sites. The US has not formally responded to this point, but it is widely considered a non-starter in its current form.

Iran's position
The strikes were acts of aggression. Compensation is a matter of international law and a prerequisite for normalization.
US position
No public acceptance. Likely to be reframed as economic development assistance or sanctions relief rather than direct reparations.
07 Recognition of Iran's right to nuclear enrichment ✕ US rejects

The most contentious point. Iran insists its right to enrich uranium is guaranteed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and is non-negotiable. Iran had been enriching to 60% purity before the June 2025 strikes — far beyond civilian levels, and approaching weapons-grade (90%). The US position under Trump is that Iran must halt enrichment entirely.

Iran's position
Enrichment is an inalienable right under international law. Iran will not surrender it under military pressure.
US position
Zero enrichment. The Trump administration's opening demand is a complete halt — going further than the JCPOA (3.67% cap).
08 Binding UN Security Council resolution to secure the deal ⚠ Disputed

Iran wants any eventual agreement enshrined in a binding UN Security Council resolution — making it harder for a future administration to unilaterally withdraw, as Trump did from the JCPOA in 2018. The US is unlikely to accept any framework that constrains executive authority on foreign policy.

Iran's position
A bilateral deal with the US is worthless — Trump left the last one. Only a UNSC resolution provides durable security guarantees.
US position
The US retains the right to determine its own foreign policy. UNSC resolution format is negotiable; binding constraints on future presidents are not.
09 End to Israeli military operations in Lebanon & Gaza ✕ US rejects

Iran is demanding that the ceasefire encompass an end to Israeli operations in both Lebanon and Gaza as part of any comprehensive settlement. Israel has explicitly rejected this linkage, and the US has backed Israel's position that these are separate conflicts.

Iran's position
Gaza and Lebanon cannot be decoupled from Iran's security. A regional peace settlement must address all active conflicts simultaneously.
US position
Lebanon excluded from ceasefire. Gaza is a separate negotiation. US and Israel reject Iran's right to condition peace on Israeli military decisions.
10 Non-aggression commitment from the US & Israel ⚠ Disputed

Iran wants formal security guarantees — legally binding commitments from the US and Israel not to launch future military strikes on Iranian territory. Given that the conflict began with exactly such strikes, this is a core Iranian demand. The form and enforceability of any such commitment is deeply contested.

Iran's position
Without ironclad security guarantees, Iran has no incentive to make concessions on nuclear or other issues. The guarantee must be legally binding.
US position
Some form of non-aggression assurance is possible, conditioned on Iranian compliance. Israel's right to self-defense cannot be constrained.
In principle agreed2 / 10 points
Disputed / under negotiation5 / 10 points
US currently rejects3 / 10 points

The Cost of 40 Days

Why both sides have an economic incentive to reach a deal — and why the longer this drags on, the worse the numbers get.

5,000+
Killed across the region in 40 days of conflict
2,076+
Iranian civilians killed since Feb 28; 26,500 wounded
3.2M
Internally displaced people across the conflict zone
$126
Peak Brent crude per barrel — an oil shock the IEA called unprecedented
$35B
Estimated US war cost through Day 40
$112B
Total cost to Israel across Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon
20%
Share of global oil supply that transited Hormuz before the blockade
70%
Gulf food imports disrupted; GCC states import over 80% of calories via Hormuz
105%
Food inflation in Iran; bread +140%, cooking oil +219% year-over-year

Brent Crude — Approximate Trajectory

From pre-conflict levels through the Hormuz closure and ceasefire

What Happens Now

The ceasefire gives both sides a two-week window to move from a 10-point proposal to something closer to a deal — or to walk away and restart the war.

"The ceasefire is fragile. Iran paused Hormuz traffic again on April 8 within hours of the ceasefire beginning, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Every point of ambiguity in the agreement is a potential trigger."
APRIL 10, 2026 · IN 2 DAYS

Islamabad talks begin

Pakistani PM Sharif invited US and Iranian delegations to Islamabad under Pakistani mediation. The session is expected to focus on translating the 10-point framework into a negotiating text. Whether Israel participates directly or through the US is unresolved.

WITHIN 14 DAYS

The enrichment question

The single biggest obstacle. The US opening demand is zero enrichment; Iran's position is non-negotiable enrichment rights. Any deal will hinge on whether a face-saving middle ground — perhaps a return to JCPOA-level 3.67% with intrusive inspections — can be found.

APRIL 21, 2026 · CEASEFIRE EXPIRES

What if talks fail?

If no framework is agreed by April 21, the ceasefire expires and both sides return to a state of active conflict. Iran has signaled it would immediately re-close the Strait. Analysts at the Dallas Fed estimate a sustained Hormuz closure pushes Brent toward $140–160.

ONGOING

Lebanon remains a wildcard

Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon — which it insists are separate from the Iran ceasefire — risk unraveling the agreement. Iran has already used Lebanon as justification for briefly pausing Hormuz transit. Hezbollah's status may be the trip wire that decides whether this ceasefire holds.